As I have been reading the commentary on the Trump tax returns, of the many questions that remain are “who leaked these returns?” There are a few possibilities. I decided I would poll my fellow accounting academics. I emailed about 45 accounting researchers who specialize in tax. I had 15 respond. One question I asked was “Who do you think leaked the tax return information to the New York Times?”
Several people simply said they had no idea, and, some preferred not to be quoted. But, of those giving me permission to quote them, here are the opinions on how those returns got to the New York Times:
- JCT staff
- Someone who works for his accountant.
- Well, the timing of the leak suggests a political motivation, so the ultimate responsible party is likely the Democratic Party. I imagine the source of the document was either a Treasury employee or someone working for Trump’s tax accountant, though I doubt the accountant would keep 20 years of returns.
- The NYT editors said the following: “We are not making the records themselves public because we do not want to jeopardize our sources, who have taken enormous personal risks to help inform the public.” This could be any number of employees with access to records on lending, financial or tax advising or reporting. They do not include 2018 or 2019 tax returns, so my guess is that it is someone with access to them as part of loan documents or an accounting firm, etc.
- An IRS employee.
- I was inclined to think his accountant or an employee at the IRS. But the accountant is the first place Trump would check, and I think it’s really hard to cover up electronic file transfers. Maybe they could’ve gotten away with printing and mailing it? But his returns are so long that printing them would be SO conspicuous. Because the IRS is more separated from Trump, I would guess the IRS if I had to, but I’m really not sure.
- It might be from his estranged niece.
- Someone worked at the IRS who cares about right vs. wrong
- Michael Cohen. But who knows.
- My best guess would be his accountants – Mazars USA (or someone who works there).
- I don’t have a clue. If I had to guess, I would say one of the President’s lawyers or someone at the same firm. Suppose it could also be IRS employee.
What I found the most fascinating is that the opinions were all over the map, and, most people displayed a very low level of confidence. I, personally, am right there with my academic colleagues—I think there are many possibilities, and, so far, the New York Times folks have done a good job of covering their tracks, and giving us few clues.
If you are a plumber with a hot tip on who the leaker is, or even an inclination you are willing to go public with, feel free to leak that tip to me.
